Krehbiel Commentary

Less Mergers, Less Bailouts

2008-11-17T03:44:27Z

I've been thinking about this bailout thing. I'm no economist, but it seems to me that instead of the government bailing out large companies that fail, the government should instead work to prevent companies from getting so large that their failure would impact the nation's economy. So I would suggest that whichever government agency is responsible for regulating corporations start cracking down and don't allow big corporations to gobble up smaller corporations anymore. (You'd think that's what anti-trust laws would be for.)

Post-Election Musing

2008-11-06T00:08:26Z

I have many post-election thoughts.

McCain's concession speech was very classy, and went a long way toward repairing his tarnished reputation in my eyes. I feel like he was devoured by the Republican Party Campaign Machine, and for whatever reason wasn't able to stick to his previously-established principles. (Prior to the RNC convention, I could still have voted for him, but his selection of Gov. Palin as a running mate was just too much of an affront.)
I'm expecting a competant but not extraordinary administration from Obama. I don't expect him to be able to fulfill many of his campaign promises (he started downplaying expectations even in his victory speech), and I anticipate that by the time he leaves office he will have disappointed many of the people who had high hopes for him. (I don't feel like I'm going out on a limb with that prediction -- what president hasn't?) I hope I'm wrong, but I'm sure you can understand how a person could be cynical.
We arrived at our polling place about 5:30 AM, and there were about 20 people ahead of us. We finished voting about 6:15 AM, and there had to have been 200 or more people waiting in line by then. When I drove by there again after work, it was deserted. Doh!
(By the way, just for the record, I voted for Bob Barr -- but that's a subject for another post, if I ever get around to it, which I probably won't, so the short version is that I'm pro-third-party right now.)
I still find it very disturbing that I don't get any kind of receipt or anything after I press the big red "vote" button on the touchscreen machines. Also, it creeps me out to think about everybody else's germs crawling all over those touchscreens.
I'm your basic WASP, born after the civil rights era, so I can only appreciate the racial significance of this election from an academic standpoint. Like Stan on that one South Park, I "don't get it." I think Obama still has a lot of hard work to do, though. I don't think it's enough to just be the first black president -- he has to be the first black president and do a good job, or it might be for naught. (Fortunately, Bush has set the bar pretty low for him.)
As I type this, it looks like the Democrats will fall short of a super-majority in the Senate. I have mixed feelings about that. I'm leaning toward thinking it's good that they won't have free reign, but I'm also mindful that Congress hasn't gotten much of anything done in, like, forever. But that could be a good thing: I'm not sure we want politicians "getting things done."
I found it pretty hilarious to watch all the newspeople trying to make it sound like the outcome of the election was in doubt so they could keep viewers tuned in to see all their fancy flying graphs and maps.
I'm very curious to see how The Daily Show and The Colbert Report handle the new administration.
Driving up 95 North, I saw a brilliant ad on the fancy-schmancy electronic billboard next to Phillip Morris, which I've attempted to recreate below. I couldn't read who sponsored or created it. I'd like to think that we live in an America like this, but again, it's really hard not to be cynical.

Poll Results from 2000 and 2004

2008-11-04T22:25:54Z

It's popularly believed (at least by the handful of people that I've overheard lately) that polls don't mean anything, and the actual results of today's election will be far different from what the media says it will be. I tend to agree with that theory, up to a point*. But I was curious to see if that viewpoint bears up against the historical evidence from the 2000 and 2004 elections, which as you may remember turned out to be toss-ups.

Here are some results from a random selection of polls conducted prior to those two elections.

2000 Bush/Gore http://www.pollingreport.com/2000.htm

ABC 48/45
CBS 44/45
CNN 47/45
FOX 43/43
NBC 47/44

2004 Bush/Kerry http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm

ABC 49/48
CBS 49/47
CNN 49/47
FOX 46/48
NBC 48/47

With that in mind, here are the last poll results before today's election.

2008 McCain/Obama http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

ABC 44/53 (?) http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=6174126&page=1
CBS 42/51 (11/2)
CNN 46/53 (11/1)
FOX 43/50 (11/2)
NBC 43/51 (11/2)

I think you can draw your own conclusions.

* I also think that obsessive reporting of poll results has a brainwashing effect on the uninformed or undecided -- it's human nature to go along with what everyone else is doing.

A Minor Reflection upon the Election

2008-11-04T22:21:17Z

For some parts of the country, tomorrow will be a day of joy and relief, and for others, it will be a day of anger and despair. Both of those extremist groups will be flailing around a lot on television, radio, and the Internet in the days and weeks ahead while media producers scramble to further dramatize what is supposed to be the (latest) defining news event of our time.

But I suspect the vast majority of people fall into different groups. For a lot of people, the results of today's election won't really matter that much. After a brief pause to hear the news over breakfast, most people will continue their daily routine without much concern for their new commander-in-chief. (A surprising number of people -- despite unprecedented voter registrations and what will surely be an unprecedented voter turnout -- probably won't even realize it's an election day, and won't have any idea who won or lost.)

We're expected to believe this is the most important election of our time, but for most of us, I suspect that the next four years will proceed very much like the last four. Most of us control our own lives and our own destiny -- not the president. Which suggests that whatever problems exist in this country rest soley on the shoulders of the electorate, not within the White House.

P.S. I feel compelled to mention that some outcasts will see the election results as another frustrating reminder that ballot access laws in this country remain hopelessly oppressive.

India Launches Moon Mission

2008-10-23T01:36:30Z

This is nifty: Indian Moon Mission Launched. Glad to see that somebody is doing something productive for the human race. This news surprised me because I can't remember hearing about any other space flights to the moon since, you know, the 1970s. Wikipedia, however, says that five other lunar missions have been launched since the end of the space race -- in 1990 (Japan), 1994 (NASA), 1998 (NASA), 2003 (ESA) and 2007 (China).

The Cynical Election Roundup

2008-10-20T03:00:53Z

By the way, I'm purposefully avoiding writing and especially reading further about the presidential election. Thankfully I already have all the information I need to make a decision, because if I didn't, I definitely wouldn't be getting anything useful from television, radio or the blogosphere. I feel badly for anyone actually trying to decide how to vote right now.

I'm still refreshing the Virginia blogosphere once or twice a day, but only to make sure that my aggregator is still running. It's impossible to read more than a line or two without a substantial increase in blood pressure. Other than that, I only watch Comedy Central and NBC Nightly News to see if anything major is happening (besides the ubiquitous "wild ride on the stock market," that is). So yeah, like, good luck with the last-minute mud-slinging, voter fraud and intimidation, or whatever.

Who's Going to Bail Out the Bailout?

2008-10-14T21:24:31Z

So let me get this straight.

House Republicans killed the first bailout bill because they claimed it was too much of a burden on taxpayers (they also claimed that Nancy Pelosi hurt their feelings, but that's too ridiculous to contemplate seriously). Okay, no problem -- they're actually doing their job and listening to their constituency, who overwhelmingly oppose the bailout (at least, that's what I hear on the radio and around the water cooler). Me included.

My representative Eric Cantor (R-VA), however, inexplicably voted for the bailout.

The Dow Jones fell 777 points after the bailout failed. But the next day, when there was nothing but financial ruin on the horizon, the Dow Jones regained 485 points. Everyone should have been happy that we'd dodged a bullet, cooler heads had prevailed, and the market was well on its way to stabilizing itself -- down, sure, but certainly not crashing.

But no. The Senate got together, took the failed bailout bill and added $150 billion of taxpayer funding for everyone's favorite pet projects, and suddenly the House Republicans didn't care so much what their constituents thought anymore. They took the bait and the president signed it into law in record time. Talk about transparency in government: House Republicans were simply holding out until a sufficient ransom was paid.

Oh, and by the way, there's no guarantee that the bailout will actually do any good.

The result? The Dow Jones has been steadily falling, and today, October 6, it's down another 370 points. (And I'm still getting offers for pre-approved credit cards in the mail every day.)

Meanwhile, John McCain, who has built his entire career around fighting pork barrel spending and government waste, and built his entire presidential campaign around appeasing ultra-conservative Republicans, cheerfully voted for the bailout. (Obama did too, but that wasn't exactly unexpected.) Yeah, this is a change election alright. *rolls eyes*

Death of a Bailout

2008-10-01T00:29:50Z

I'm kind of glad the bailout bill failed. The "credit crisis" hasn't affected me in the slightest, and I have yet to see any specific explanation of how it might affect me in the future. So now I won't be able to get a loan for more money than I can ever pay back... that's a crisis?

I'm no fan of Nancy Pelosi, but I don't think she caused the bailout to fail. I mean, she says partisan stuff all the time and Republicans haven't melted down before. But on the off chance that she did kill it, way to go Nancy!

I was surprised Eric Cantor voted for the bill. It had his "insurance" provisions in it but it didn't sound anything like what he originally wanted. For one thing, it sounded like the insurance was optional. Who's going to voluntarily buy insurance when they could get free money from the government instead? It felt like more of a token effort than a real push to defend the taxpayers. Maybe he... *gasp*... compromised. RINO!! Burn the heretic!!

That Bailout Thingy

2008-09-26T23:09:15Z

I know nothing about the mysteriously ambiguous world of economics so I can't speculate as to whether this bailout thing is good, bad, or indifferent. Well, actually I can -- I can speculate that bailing out big companies sounds bad. Not so much for the dreaded socialism aspect but more for the fact that the upper echelons of all these failed companies won't experience any consequences from their persistent record of gross incompetence. (Not that they would experience any consequences without a bailout either, since I'm sure they'd just move on to another cozy CEO job.)

One other thing: I keep hearing over and over that the reason we need to do this bailout right away is that small businesses rely heavily on the credit markets, so they'll all die out if they can't have ready access to credit on a daily basis. I can't help but wonder why so many businesses are so dependent on credit... why don't small businesses have, you know, actual money? It seems like a no brainer to me that if you are constantly paying expenses by borrowing money, you are eventually going to collapse, and any kind of bailout will just prolong the inevitable.

This might be one of the only times in my life that I actually support Eric Cantor in his push for an alternate bailout.

The Conventions Part 2

2008-09-05T22:17:38Z

I'm not going to lie to you: The RNC was nowhere near as entertaining as the DNC. (Except as seen on The Daily Show.)

Here are the all-star speakers from CSPAN's YouTube channel: George Bush (introduced by Laura Bush), Fred Thompson, Joe Lieberman, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Lindsey Graham, Tom Ridge, Cindy McCain, John McCain. (Remember bloggers, embeds are not valid HTML. Think of the children.)

I think I can say with some conviction that I don't fit in with the Republican Party. (I do support national security, fiscal responsibility and smaller government, though.) Modern Republicans at all levels seem to be governed by the overriding principle that passive aggressively baiting opponents into angry, emotional responses -- strolling right up to stand on the line of outright lies and libel -- is a healthy form of discourse.

By the way, a lot was made of Obama's Greek columns, but did anyone else notice that McCain's rearrangement of the stage for his acceptance speech sort of resembled a giant penis? Message, Spock?

Comparison of VP speeches

2008-09-05T01:57:18Z

I thought it would be instructive to compare the tone of the personal attacks in the vice-presidential candidate speeches at their respective conventions.

Sen. Joe Biden

"And that’s the America we’ll continue to get if George — excuse me, if John McCain is elected president of the United States of America. Freudian slip. Freudian slip."

"But John McCain doesn’t get it."

"John McCain is my friend. We’ve known each other for three decades. We’ve traveled the world together. It’s a friendship that goes beyond politics. And the personal courage and heroism John demonstrated still amaze me."

"But I profoundly disagree with the direction that John wants to take the country. For example, John thinks that during the Bush years “we’ve made great progress economically.” I think it’s been abysmal."

"And in the Senate, John sided with President Bush 95 percent of the time. Give me a break."

"These times require more than a good soldier; they require a wise leader, a leader who can deliver change the change everybody knows we need."

"Now, despite being complicit in this catastrophic foreign policy, John McCain says Barack Obama isn’t ready to protect our national security."

"Again and again, on the most important national security issues of our time, John McCain was wrong, and Barack Obama was proven right."

Gov. Sarah Palin

"And since our opponents in this presidential election seem to look down on that experience, let me explain to them what the job involved. I guess — I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a community organizer, except that you have actual responsibilities."

"I might add that, in small towns, we don’t quite know what to make of a candidate who lavishes praise on working people when they’re listening and then talks about how bitterly they cling to their religion and guns when those people aren’t listening. No, we tend to prefer candidates who don’t talk about us one way in Scranton and another way in San Francisco."

"No one expects us all to agree on everything, but we are expected to govern with integrity, and goodwill, and clear convictions, and a servant’s heart. And I pledge to all Americans that I will carry myself in this spirit as vice president of the United States." [This is not an attack, but the irony is impossible to ignore.]

"Our opponents say again and again that drilling will not solve all of America’s energy problems, as if we didn’t know that already."

"And now, I’ve noticed a pattern with our opponent, and maybe you have, too. We’ve all heard his dramatic speeches before devoted followers, and there is much to like and admire about our opponent. But listening to him speak, it’s easy to forget that this is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or even a reform, not even in the State Senate."

"This is a man who can give an entire speech about the wars America is fighting and never use the word “victory,” except when he’s talking about his own campaign."

"But when the cloud of rhetoric has passed, when the roar of the crowd fades away, when the stadium lights go out, and those Styrofoam Greek columns are hauled back to some studio lot… … when that happens, what exactly is our opponent’s plan? What does he actually seek to accomplish after he’s done turning back the waters and healing the planet?"

"Here’s how I look at the choice Americans face in this election: In politics, there are some candidates who use change to promote their careers, and then there are those, like John McCain, who use their careers to promote change."

"They are the ones whose names appear on laws and landmark reforms, not just on buttons and banners or on self-designed presidential seals."

"My fellow citizens, the American presidency is not supposed to be a journey of personal discovery."

"For a season, a gifted speaker can inspire with his words. But for a lifetime, John McCain has inspired with his deeds."

"This world of threats and dangers, it’s not just a community and it doesn’t just need an organizer."

Liberal Media Bias Again

2008-09-05T01:49:52Z

Here's some more of that damn liberal media bias again. I'm glad conservatives are finally holding the media accountable for this foolishness.

Sen. Joe Biden's convention speech transcript on FOX News: http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/08/27/raw-data-transcript-of-joe-bidens-speech-at-democratic-convention/.

Gov. Sarah Palin's convention speech transcript on FOX News: http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/03/raw-data-sarah-palin-remarks-at-gop-convention/.

(Note the "applause" notations.)

Secure Your Teleprompter Text

2008-09-05T01:49:17Z

I was scanning over Gov. Palin's speech as it was pasted at Caroline County VA Justice (original source unknown), and stumbled over this part, which plenty of others have also noticed:

Terrorist states are seeking new-clear weapons without delay ... he wants to meet them without preconditions. (emphasis mine)

This is chuckle-worthy because I remember quite well that Palin said "nukyooler" in her introductory speech.

Common Ground

2008-09-05T21:05:59Z

I'm going to try to find some common ground with Gov. Sarah Palin.

I have no problem getting behind ~~her platform of ethics reform and cutting spending~~ her platforms of ethics reform and spending cuts. Corrupt politicians suck, and government is wasteful beyond belief.

I am also on board with building more nuclear plants and developing alternative fuels.

And I wholeheartedly agree that Sen. McCain is a war hero.

That is all.

Edited to correct embarrassing grammar.

Prediction

2008-09-04T02:31:25Z

I am going to make a bold prediction that Republicans will praise Sarah Palin's speech (probably using baseball metaphors), and Democrats will not.